Howdy—
I’ve been working on this update for weeks! Every time I think I get it finished, the news changes! Here is my most thorough update, as of 15 January 2009.
Situation Update:
The current situation is (unfortunately, as usual) a mess. For those who may not remember, a brief recap:
• The war formally started in 1983. (However, the seeds of war were sown by centuries of colonialism, coupled by independence without a clear, inclusive idea of what it meant to be “Sri Lankan”.)
• After nearly two decades of fighting, in early 2002, the Government of Sri Lanka (GOSL) and the Tamil Tigers (LTTE) signed a cease-fire agreement, opened borders and otherwise began to act like they were human beings.
• The ceasefire held (with minor violations) until around 2004, when the Eastern LTTE commander, Colonel Karuna, broke away from the main LTTE group to start his own group. (They have since joined the government as a political party – complete with their guns and still recruiting child soldiers.)
• The situation further deteriorated. 2006 saw widespread fighting, with both sides ignoring the ceasefire agreement, until it became essentially meaningless.
• In the last Presidential election, the LTTE threw the election to hard-liner Mahindha Rajapakse (over Ranil Wickramasinghe, the one who brokered and signed the ceasefire agreement). The LTTE did this by preventing large numbers of Tamils from going to the polls, often at gunpoint.
• Rajapakse returns the favor by launching an all-out war against the Tigers. In January of this year, GOSL formally broke the ceasefire agreement and announced that they were going to wipe out LTTE “once and for all”. Government sources stated that the flag of Sri Lanka would fly over the Tiger’s capital city of Killinnochchi before the end of the year.
It’s been 12 months. And, the GOSL flag flies over Killinnochchi, which has been reduced to a rubble-filled ghost town. And, just yesterday, I saw in the BBC that government troops have seized the entire Jaffna peninsula.
While this has been going on, LTTE has been filling up body bags with government soldiers. The Tigers have used the monsoon rains, their knowledge of the terrain, and the psychology of time all to their advantage. Right now, their backs are against the wall, their former territories shrunken to one coastal district, with over a quarter-million civilians living in dire conditions.
Some Predictions
What happens next? My advice to Sarvodaya’s leadership (based on what I’ve been hearing from the field) is that one of two things will happen:
1. GOSL will achieve its military aim: LTTE will be eliminated as a fighting force. GOSL will achieve total control over the North through military means and thus end the war. My prediction of this scenario occurring: 3% possibility. (I would say “zero”, but I have to leave room for miracles.) I base this on simple history: no government, no matter how well funded or motivated, has been able to militarily defeat an entrenched insurgency. Period. There is no likelihood that the Sri Lankan government can do what the US government (Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq – we’re slow learners) and the Israeli government (West Bank, Lebanon, now Gaza) could NOT do is simply impossible.
2. GOSL will not defeat the LTTE through military means. Even as GOSL takes Killinnochchi, the war will continue on, as a guerilla action, into the indefinite future. The war will drag on, perhaps shifting from a conventional war to a more classic guerilla war. Prediction: 100% possibility.
(Remember: These are SHARIF’S PREDICTIONS, and should not be seen as Sarvodaya’s predictions or policies):
Because of their promise to “end” the war, the government has been able to whip up support in the South for a military solution to the war. They have promised that it would be quick, decisive and effective. There has been tremendous support among the Sinhalese people (and even some support among the Tamils) to “get this over”. (And, the “International Community” – the ones who sell the guns – has turned a blind eye to the entire matter.)
Part of that support came from controlling how the government shaped the war media:
• Banning journalists – foreign and domestic – from visiting the war front,
• Censoring the “Tamilnet” website (now available in Sri Lanka only through proxy sites) and
• Supporting (directly or indirectly) a “war” on journalists, who have been beaten, kidnapped and killed in recent times.
The most recent casualty in that “war” on journalists was Lasantha Wickramatunga, editor of “The Sunday Leader”. In a chilling post mortem editorial, Mr. Wickramatunga names his murderer — the government Sri Lanka. (I believe his editorial “And Then They Came for Me” is a MUST READ. Please click on this link to go to the Sunday Leader article: click here.)
* * *
The Rajapakse government, and its military offensive, has been popular in the South. The New Year’s Day announcement of the fall of Killinnochchi was greeted with firecrackers and cheering in the capital city, Colombo.
I think the cheering and the firecrackers are premature.
A decade ago, I was in Sri Lanka when the Tigers routed the government soldiers from their fort at Elephants Pass, then raced up the Jaffna Peninsula, almost taking (re-taking) the city of Jaffna from the government.
My feelings upon hearing that the Government seized Elephants Pass are the same as when I heard that the Tigers seized it 10 years ago.
Immense sadness.
Because… once the adrenalin and euphoria of violence dies down, once the military parades are concluded and firecrackers put away, we will see what we have always seen – violence accomplishes NOTHING but more violence.
The arrogance of violence. You can hear it in the triumphant voice of President Rajapakse, the way you could hear it in the voice of (soon to be former) President Bush, after his famous jet-fighter landing on the aircraft carrier, getting out and announcing “Mission Accomplished” in Iraq. Violence not only makes one arrogant, it makes one blind to the realities on the ground.
The realities are these:
• Violence will drag on as a guerilla war.
• The financial cost of the continuing war will destroy the Sri Lankan economy.
• The LTTE (or another group like them) will come back.
• Killinnochchi and Elephants Pass will switch hands again. And again.
As the war drags on and the economy worsens, the Sinhalese majority could “turn” against the war as dramatically as the American populace turned against the Iraqi war, when that conflict turned out to be not quick, decisive or effective.
Just like the war in Iraq has bankrupted America, the ongoing war in Sri Lanka threatens to bankrupt that society, for all ethnic and religious groups.
Moral Bankruptcy
Even more important than financial bankruptcy is moral and spiritual bankruptcy. Sri Lanka is as nominally “Buddhist” as America is “Christian”: revere the founder, but ignore his teachings. Both the Buddha and Jesus made nonviolence a central tenet of their teachings. And, both “Buddhists” and “Christians” conveniently ignore that, as they rush headlong into the downward spiral of ever-greater violence.
There is a price to pay from continued violence. The price is financial: the dollars that go to pay for guns, bullets and bombs are not available for schools, hospitals and jobs. Around the world, governments need food handouts from the UN because they waste their money on the armaments of war.
But, there is another, far greater price. There is a psychic, spiritual wound in the heart of Sri Lankan society. Regardless of all the rationales and fancy foot-work from the priests (Buddhists over there; Christians over here), deep down inside, the soldiers know that what they are doing is WRONG. The Buddha said that one should not cause harm to “any sentient being”. (Last time I checked, “humans” were “sentient beings”.) Jesus was even more explicit: “Love your enemies”. (In America, many “Christians” translate that to “Kill and torture your enemies”.)
Ignoring the words of these master-teachers hurts at the soul level, as deeply as a bullet. Just because the person encouraging you to ignore the Buddha or ignore Jesus calls himself a priest and is wearing orange robes or has a cross around his neck… the truth is the truth.
What is the evidence of this “soul pain”? Though Sri Lanka professes to be a “Buddhist” country:
• Sri Lanka has one of the highest suicide rates in the world.
• Sri Lanka has one of the highest alcoholism rates in the world.
• Sri Lanka has one of the highest rates of civil violence in the world.
Bowing to the orange-robed monks is an interesting outward display of piety. But, many of those monks see violence all around in their society, yet do nothing to prevent it (or worse, encourage and glory in it). Jesus said, “The meek shall inherit the Earth”. But, until we do, we’ve got to put up with the gleeful arrogance of the “righteously” violent.
Sarvodaya’s Response
Under either of the above scenarios, Sarvodaya has a role to play – for the unfortunate civilians caught up in the conflict, and for the citizens (Sinhalese, Tamil, Muslim and Christian) who wrongly believe that anything can be resolved through violent means.
Sarvodaya’s First Response: Humanitarian Aid
Sarvodaya’s humanitarian role is already in gear. Sarvodaya is one of the few organizations able to get relief trucks through the fighting to the beleaguered refugees in the North. Estimates of refugees range from a low of 100,000 to as high as 300,000 people, ill-fed and sleeping outside during the rainiest part of the Sri Lankan year. Needless to say, this is a humanitarian catastrophe of epic proportions. (The Sri Lankan government is in total denial around this. Same as MOST governments that cause harm – including my own.)
Sarvodaya’s Next Response: The Transformation of Society
Beyond addressing the humanitarian crisis, Sarvodaya continues to work toward the ultimate resolution of this type of conflict: the transformation of the system and structure of “government” itself. To move from “government by the elites” (the most common form of government in the world) to “government by my village”. Regular people, at the village level, can work out their own problems, if given half a chance. By establishing “grama swaraj” (independent village “republics”), the interest and ability to engage in violent conflicts diminishes.
A Common Vision
The ultimate key to the success of “grama swaraj” lies in Sarvodaya’s ability to help the people articulate a common set of visions, values and principles. Sri Lanka has never had a unifying set of principles that defines and unites all Sri Lankans, over and beyond divisions of race, ethnicity, religion, class and caste. Until now. Through a Sarvodaya-facilitated process, the “Vision Declaration” has been developed and spread to tens of thousands of people, in all walks of life, in thousands of communities, all over the island. And, it has met with near-unanimous approval at the village level, serving as a foundational political statement of the basic problem and a vision for a common solution. (To read the English version of the “Vision Declaration”, click here.)
Do-It-Yourself Bailout: How Sarvodaya Is Responding to the Financial Crisis
It is weird that there is little impact in Sri Lanka of the US and global meltdown. YET. I think it’s like the tsunami many years ago – the earthquake happened hours before the wave actually struck the coast. People are very aware that the meltdown is happening, but it seems to be happening on another planet. Hard to create a sense of urgency. The idea that America may be economically melting down is just – inconceivable.
In Sri Lanka, inflation rates are high, people are feeling pinched… but that was happening before the US meltdown.
Sarvodaya intends to put in place a multi-faceted approach to the pending crisis. But: more on that in a subsequent entry!
Peace,
Sharif